Deep Dive Thread for Michigan

Alabama Gameday Poster Courtesy of AlabamaMBB

The Wolverines are coached in their second season by Dusty May, who has them back in the Sweet 16 for the second year in a row. They come in with a 33-3 overall record, with big wins over Gonzaga, Purdue, Illinois, and Michigan State, with losses just to Wisconsin, Duke, and Purdue.

They are led in scoring and on defense by 6-9 UAB transfer Yaxel Lendeborg. Yaxel is both a solid rebounder and a very efficient scorer, sitting at 11th in the country in Offensive Rating. Yaxel does a great job getting to the line, while also not fouling on the other end. He is over 36% from deep, so you have to stay out on him or else he will make you pay.

You cannot leave Yaxel open from deep. https://x.com/MarchMadnessMBB/status/2035397472596508877?s=20

Their leading rebounder and second leading scorer is 6-9 Morez Johnson. Johnson is the best offensive rebounder on the team and does a great job of drawing fouls and getting to the line. He is super efficient from around the rim and does a solid job converting from the line when fouled. He is capable of shooting from deep at 37% but only shoots around one per game.

The big-to-big passes are common, and they do a good job cutting without the ball. https://x.com/B1GMBBall/status/2033273869973221706?s=20

Johnson does a good job playing above the rim and rebounding on offense. https://x.com/umichbball/status/2033271497100234863?s=20

Their starting center and one of the best shot blockers in the country is 7-3 Aday Mara. Mara is 5th in the country in Block Rate and 3rd in the country at just under 3 blocks per game. He does a great job moving his feet and blocking shots, so Alabama will have to have a game plan for how to attack him at the rim. He’s a solid passer, so doubling down on him can be punished if you do not succeed in forcing the steal.

Alabama must go up strong, or else they will turn defense into offense. https://x.com/MarchMadnessMBB/status/2035391162731696209?s=20

Mara is crafty around the rim on offense. Aiden will need to be ready to play. https://x.com/umichbball/status/2035397909336744083?s=20

Their starting point guard is 6-1 Elliot Cadeau, the UNC transfer. Alabama knows him well as they faced him in the Sweet 16 in 2024. Do not expect Alabama to guard him the same way as he has vastly improved as a shooter now at over 37% from behind the arc. He does a great job running this offense and getting his bigs involved both on the block and in the pick-and-roll. Defending him at the point of attack will need to be a key.

Alabama will not want to go under screens on Cadeau this time around. https://x.com/B1GMBBall/status/2033272976779382937?s=20

Their final starter is a guy Alabama knows very well in 6-5 Nimari Burnett. Burnett is in his 3rd season in Ann Arbor after transferring from Alabama. Nimari is a solid perimeter defender, but his role is largely from a 3 and D perspective as he is the best shooter on the team at just under 40% from behind the arc.

Michigan has 3 guys that come off the bench that you will see in this game: 6-4 Trey McKenney, 6-5 Roddy Gayle, and 6-8 Will Tschetter. McKenney is another elite shooter off the bench at around 38% from deep, where Gayle serves more of a backup point role, providing solid defense. Tschetter is more of a rotational piece to help get the front court rest as he is not as good of a rebounder as the others. Tschetter is able to knock down shots from deep, so Alabama can’t leave him in his limited minutes.

Michigan is elite in a ton of categories. They are 6th in offensive and 2nd in defensive efficiency. They are top 50 in both offensive and defensive rebounding. They are 2nd in 2pt% offense and 4th in 2pt% defense. They are 3rd in block rate and also force many teams to take a ton of midrange 2s with Mara in drop coverage.

If Alabama is going to take advantage of any areas, it will be that Michigan has struggled at times this season, turning over the basketball on offense, and they do allow opponents to get a lot of their shots up from 3. They allow over 42% of their opponents’ shots to be from 3, so if Alabama is able to make their open looks from deep, then Alabama has a chance to play well in this game.

My player to watch is London Jemison. London has been put into the starting lineup recently and has provided solid defense and an extra shooter in the front court these last few games. This will be his toughest test yet as he will be matched up on Johnson or Lendborg for the whole game. Alabama will need him to play solid defense and then knock down his open shots on offense to be successful in this game. I think the freshman is ready for the spotlight.

Alabama played its best game of the season last game out versus Texas Tech, which saw the best version of their defense and rebounding we have seen this season. For Alabama to be able to win this game, they will need to play like that again because Michigan is a number 1 seed for a reason and can dominate if Alabama does not play up to the competition. I can see a path to victory for Alabama, and I personally give it about a 25% chance of happening, but Michigan has a larger margin for error.

Prediction: Michigan 87 - Alabama 81

I broke down this game even further on my YouTube Channel. Check it out and Subscribe for more Alabama Basketball Content. https://youtu.be/oKTvAe3pyDs