Deep Dive Thread for Texas Tech

Alabama Gameday Poster courtesy of AlabamaMBB

The Red Raiders are coached in their 3rd season by Grant McCasland, who looks to get his team back to the second weekend for the second year in a row after their Elite 8 last season. This team has big wins over Duke and Arizona, but has not been the same team since losing All-American JT Toppin versus Arizona St.

Even prior to the injury to Toppin, the facilitator and one of the leaders of this team was 6-3 Christian Anderson. Anderson also is an elite shooter at over 42% from deep, so when he is not getting his teammates involved, he can score on his own at a high clip. Anderson is one of the best guards in the country, so keeping him contained and not allowing him to dictate the game will be important.

Anderson and their whole team has really solid ball movement on offense to setup open shooters. https://x.com/TexasTechMBB/status/2030499759711215766?s=20

Anderson has elite vision and passing ability. https://x.com/TexasTechMBB/status/2032144066318598413?s=20

One of the best shooters in the country is 6-5 UNC Greensboro transfer Donovan Atwell. Atwell has the 3rd best offensive efficiency in the country as well as the 11th best 3pt percentage at nearly 46% from deep. Atwell does a great job not turning over the ball when he gets it on offense. Atwell is an extremely high-volume shooter with over 80 more attempts than Alabama’s highest guy. Alabama will have to chase him off the line all game because he has an ability to catch fire from behind the arc.

Atwell is an elite shooter from deep, and defense leads to offense you can not leave him open. https://x.com/TexasTechMBB/status/2035042177034658259?s=20

Their leading scorer in the Akron game was 6-1 freshman Jaylen Petty. Petty has had to take a larger scoring role since the Toppin injury and has been one of the guys who has stepped up as their offense has centered more around guards than play through the post. Petty is shooting at over 38% from deep, so Alabama will need to make sure they do not leave him and force him to put the ball on the floor where he is not nearly as efficient.

Petty has made some huge shots in his freshman campaign. https://x.com/TexasTechMBB/status/2008737330262421771?s=20

Their starting 4-man and best rebounder without Toppin is 6-6 LuJuan Watts. Watts has been a solid rebounder this season and is one of the only guys on Tech that draws a foul at a fairly solid clip. Most of the team plays behind the arc and in the midrange, but Watts plays with a physicality around the rim and on the glass that will be important for them in this game. Watts is a capable 3-point shooter, but that is not really his specialty.

Watts is a crafty finisher around the rim. https://x.com/TexasTechMBB/status/2035043894849667253?s=20

The 2 centers who have had to step up since Toppin’s injury are 6-11 Luke Bamgboye and 6-8 Josiah Moseley. Both guys are capable rebounders and shot blockers, but they have been thrust into a role they have only been in for the last 8 games as Toppin played a ton of minutes. Neither guy is the best offensive threat, but they have an ability to get some offensive boards, so keeping them off the glass will be important.

Their last rotational piece is 6-5 Tyree Bryan, the Santa Clara transfer. Bryan was an elite shooter last season from behind the arc at nearly 43%, but this season he has struggled at sub-29% and has been much more of a defensive and rotational piece to help get the starters some rest.

Texas Tech is an elite offensive team, especially shooting from behind the arc, where they are 3rd in the country in 3-point percentage. They have changed up their offensive, being less out of the pick-and-roll since the Toppin injury, but have an elite group of guards who can score as well as anyone in the country. They also have played and beaten some great teams this season, so expect them to be battle-tested and ready to roll.

With Tech playing without Toppin, I think Alabama will have a clear advantage scoring in the paint, especially driving with guards like Labaron and Amari. I also think that Tech not drawing a ton of fouls plays well into what Alabama does with not giving up a ton of free points. Lastly, since Toppin’s injury, Tech has had some issues on the glass, and I think if Alabama rebounds at the level they are capable, they should be able to win the battle on the glass.

My player to watch is Amari Allen. Allen had a rough first half before getting going in the second half, scoring 11 points and getting going downhill to the rim. Allen has been Alabama’s best rebounder for a large stretch of this season and provides a guy who does well getting downhill and finishing at the rim. I expect him to play well in this game, which fits his game, and he also will play a pivot role on defense, helping defend Atwell from deep.

Alabama is on the cusp of their 3rd straight Sweet 16, but Texas Tech stands in their way. This is a solid Tech team, but they have just not been the same since losing their All-American in JT Toppin. I do expect this to be a very fun back-and-forth game, but ultimately, I like Alabama to pull out the win and advance to face Michigan.

Prediction: Alabama 90 - Texas Tech 84

I broke down this game even further on my YouTube Channel with Michael Macon of The Cotton Club Crew. Subscribe for more Alabama Basketball Content. https://youtu.be/F6lMU6wjifM