Deep Dive Thread for Auburn

Alabama Gameday Poster courtesy of AlabamaMBB

Deep Dive Thread for Auburn: The Tigers are coached in their 1st season by Mr. Nepotism himself, Steven Pearl. Auburn currently sits at 14-8 overall and 5-4 in conference. They are coming off their midweek off and look to bounce back after their loss last time out.

Auburn is led in scoring and rebounding by 6-7 UCF transfer Keyshawn Hall. Hall is a great defensive rebounder that is an elite shooter from behind the arc at 41%, but where he does a ton of damage is at the free throw line. Hall is top 30 in the country in both drawing fouls and FT rate, and he converts at nearly 86% from the line.

Hall has been elite this season from all 3 levels. https://x.com/AuburnMBB/status/2015184512582320366?s=20

Their second leading scorer and top assist man is 6-1 Tahaad Pettiford. Pettiford has done a great job getting his teammates involved in the offense, but has struggled mightily from behind the arc, especially in conference play where he is just 18% from deep. His increased role on the team has caused his efficiency to not be nearly what it was last season.

Pettiford has been great finishing over the top off the defense with an elite floater game. https://x.com/AuburnMBB/status/2015200116617994498?s=20

Their leading steal man is one of their better shooters in 6-5 Kevin Overton from Texas Tech. Overton had 25 pts and a huge game versus Texas where he went 5-7 from behind the arc, giving Auburn a needed boost, but struggled versus Tennessee in his last game out. Auburn will look for consistent shooting and defense out of Overton in this game to matchup with Alabama’s backcourt.

Overton is a solid shooter from behind the arc, which can give Auburn a needed boost. https://x.com/AuburnMBB/status/2016663761348702609?s=20

Their starting center is Mississippi State transfer 6-10 KeShawn Murphy. Murphy has the highest rebounding rate on the team to go with one of the best offensive ratings as well. He has done a good job blocking shots and defending without fouling, while converting at the line himself when getting the opportunity. He had 18 in both games versus Alabama last season, so Alabama will need to play solid defense to keep him contained.

Auburn’s final starter is the freshman 6-8 Sebastian Williams-Adams. Williams-Adams leads the team in blocks and is second in steals. He has been one of their best defenders since entering the starting lineup in December. He also is top 20 in the country in FT rate, so keeping him off the foul line when he has the ball will need to be a key. He is capable of shooting from deep but would rather finish in the paint or get fouled.

Williams-Adams can do a great job of turning defense into offense. https://x.com/AuburnMBB/status/2016673612317507942?s=20

A guy who started the season as a starter but has since slid into more of a 6th man role is 6-8 Elyjah Freeman, the D2 transfer. Since Williams-Adams entered the starting lineup, Freeman has come off the bench still averaging 25 minutes per game. He does a good job defensively defending without fouling, with an above-average steal rate. He is capable of making shots from deep, but much like the rest of the team, he prefers doing his damage inside the arc.

The last guy with a major role in Auburn’s rotation is 6-8 Filip Jovic, the 21-year-old freshman from Bosnia. Jovic is not a perimeter threat at all and really has done a ton of damage inside the arc, where he is a league-best 78% from 2 in conference play. Jovic has done a great job getting to the line and drawing fouls like much of Auburn, but he really does most of his damage on the offensive glass, where he is top 40 in America and 5th in conference play.

That’s really all of the major contributors for Auburn this season; their bench minutes have been in the bottom 30 in the country. Auburn has had the number 2 strength of schedule, just behind Alabama at number 1, while both teams hold wins over St. Johns and losses to Purdue and Arizona.

Auburn is a much better offensive team than defensive team this season, aided by their offensive rebounding, lack of turnovers, and insane FT rate. Auburn currently has the 14th highest offensive rebound rate in the country, to go with a top 50 turnover rate on offense. The place where they make their money, however, is from the charity stripe, where they are 2nd in the country in FT rate, getting nearly 25% of their points each game from the FT line.

Auburn has struggled running teams off the 3pt line this season, letting them get off a decent amount at nearly 35% from deep. Auburn also has not rebounded the ball defensively very well at times, getting killed on the offensive glass much in the same way as Alabama. Finally, Auburn has just 1 win over a power conference team in which the possessions got over 70, and they have not done well when games get into a good rhythm and tempo with their lack of shooting.

My player to watch is Amari Allen. Allen has been one of Alabama’s best defenders and by far their most consistent rebounder. He had a great assist-to-turnover rate versus A&M and played a major role in getting the win at home. I expect his physicality and rebounding will be a key factor in this game, especially with Auburn’s bigger wings they often play.

Playing on the road at Auburn is always a tough place, and they will want revenge after Alabama ripped their heart out in overtime last season. Alabama has been up and down on the road this season, but I do think they have gotten back on the right track after the big win over A&M on Wednesday. I think Alabama pulls out a close one.

Prediction: Alabama 90 - Auburn 86

I broke down this game even further over on my YouTube channel. Check it out and subscribe for more. https://youtu.be/jrdNYWNPgtQ