Deep Dive Thread for Illinois

Gameday Poster Courtesy AlabamaMBB

The Fighting Illini are coached by Brad Underwood in his 9th season, who looks to get them back to the second weekend for just his second time in Champaign. Illinois sits at 5th in KenPom this season and looks to avenge its 100-87 loss to Alabama last season in Birmingham.

Illinois is led in scoring by 6-2 Kylan Boswell, in his second season after spending his first 2 in Arizona. He also leads the team in assists and steals, as well as being an elite sharpshooter from deep at over 43% from 3. He has scored 15 and 17 points in his previous matchups with Alabama, so keeping him from getting hot will be key.

Boswell had a massive game earlier this season, doing it all. https://x.com/brhoops/status/1987007846647738761?s=20

Tied with Boswell in scoring but leading the team in rebounding is freshman 6-9 David Mirkovic. Mirkovic is from Montenegro. After playing professionally in Serbia, he has been an insane addition to the Illini with his rebounding and fundamentals. He plays the game with his head up. He is coming off a game with 21 rebounds, including 8 offensive, so keeping him off the glass will be key.

Mirkovic is coming off an incredible performance his last time out. https://x.com/IlliniMBB/status/1989550016529105291?s=20

One of the most surprising newcomers this season has been 6-6 Keaton Wagler. Wagler is averaging 17.5/6.5 from the wing position while shooting nearly 36% from deep. He has done a great job getting downhill this season to finish around the rim or get to the line, where he’s had a ton of success.

Wagler has a ton of success around the rim. https://x.com/IlliniMBB/status/1989515430168342561?s=20

In the Texas Tech game, Illinois' leading scorer was transfer 6-7 Andrej Stojakovic. Andrej can shoot from deep, but where he dominated in that game was from inside the arc, where he was 11-15. Son of an NBA legend, he has been around the game forever and has played a major role on this team after previously being at Stanford and Cal.

Andrej was elite around the rim against Texas Tech. https://x.com/MarchMadnessMBB/status/1988462412325154977?s=20

The centers for this team are the Croatian Twins, 7-1 Tomislav and 7-2 Zvonimir Ivisic. Tomislav went for 14/10 last season against Alabama. He will be a game-time decision in this game, after leading the team in scoring in the one game he played this season. Zvonimir has had a ton of success against Alabama when he was at Kentucky, scoring 27 and 18 in the 2 matchups against the Tide.

Zvonimir can shoot from deep but where he is elite is blocking shots without fouling. https://x.com/IlliniMBB/status/1987322998961922550?s=20

The last 2 guys I expect to see in this game are 6-9 Ben Humrichous and 6-6 Jake Davis. Ben is averaging over 10 per game this season, along with not having any turnovers and shooting just over 37% from deep. Davis has been starting for this team and takes his shots almost exclusively from behind the arc.

Rebounding will be key because they can hit huge 3s off the offensive board. https://x.com/IlliniMBB/status/1989521048853794879?s=20

Illinois is elite in a couple of key areas, namely rebounding and defending without fouling. They are 11th in offensive as well as 3rd in defensive rebounding, which will pose a tough test for the Tide. Additionally, they are number 1 in the country at not putting teams on the line when defending. A couple of places they do struggle is assisting on baskets on offense and creating turnovers on defense.

Alabama had success in this matchup last season, and I expect that the pace of this game will be one that Alabama thrives in. The place where this game probably comes down to is the glass; both Alabama and Illinois have game-time decisions in Bristow and Tomislav. Both have the opportunity to impact this game, and I think that it will come down to who wants it more, as Alabama has a lot to prove after the tough outing against Purdue on the glass.

My player to watch is Amari Allen. The 6-8 freshman has been Alabama's best rebounder so far this season. Combine that with a game that I expect to be very free-flowing, and I expect that he will have a ton of opportunities to impact this game. I expect him to rebound well and run the break, getting that tempo in favor of Alabama.

This game will be played in Chicago. Illinois has quite a few new faces on this roster from last season, which I think makes them so much tougher of a matchup. I do think that Alabama can win and have success, but I think this matchup will come down to the frontcourt and how well Alabama can keep a guy like Mirkovic off the glass. Unfortunately, without knowing if Bristow is going to play and with this game being on the road, I have to take the Illini in a close one.

Prediction: Alabama 87 - Illinois 91

For a further breakdown on this game I did a podcast with Armchair Illinois where we broke down even more about this game. https://youtu.be/AluqGftA_b4