Deep Dive Thread for Mississippi State

Gameday Poster Courtesy of AlabamaMBB

The Bulldogs are coached in their 4th season by Chris Jans, who looks to get back to the NCAA tournament for the 4th time and get his first postseason win in Starkville. Mississippi State currently sits at 10-6 and 2-1 in conference, including a win on the road in Austin.

The SEC’s leading scorer is 6-0 Josh Hubbard, averaging just under 23 points and 4 assists. Hubbard is a volume shooter who has played well both times he faced Alabama last season, including putting up 38 at home. He does not need much space to get the shot off and is great in the pick and roll and coming off screens, so Alabama will have to be on its A game to hold him down.

Hubbard needs very little space to get a shot off so Alabama will have to fight over screens all night. https://x.com/HailStateMBK/status/2010164678400569461?s=20

State’s second leading scorer is also in the backcourt in 6-2 Jayden Epps. Epps averages just under 16 points per game and gives a good complement to Hubbard as he thrives finishing around the rim. Epps spent his last 2 seasons at Georgetown, but has really slid in well to this offense behind Josh Hubbard.

Epps isn’t an elite shooter from behind the arc, but he isn't afraid to let it fly, even when contested. https://x.com/HailStateMBK/status/2010163814277562679?s=20

Their 3rd leading scorer actually comes off the bench alot in 6-2 Ja’Borri McGhee. The UAB transfer is by far the best 3-point shooter on the team, as he is the only one over 35%, and he currently sits at 45% on the season. He gives a different element to the backcourt than Epps and Hubbard due to his shot from deep.

McGhee is seen as a shooter but has the ability to drive to the rim as well. https://x.com/HailStateMBK/status/2010181275576049798?s=20

Senior Wichita St transfer 7-0 Quincy Ballard is their starting center. Ballard gives them a lob threat on offense as well as a more than capable rebounder. He also does a good job blocking shots without fouling and giving them a true presence in the paint. His offensive efficiency isnt what it was last season, but he is capable of helping affect the game in other ways.

Hubbard’s ability to get by his man creates easy opportunities for Ballard at the rim. https://x.com/HailStateMBK/status/2009077430296994139?s=20

Their best rebounder and one of the best in the country is 6-9 Achor Achor. He is currently averaging 5 and 7, but has a top 50 rebounding rate on both offense and defense. Additionally, in all 3 SEC games so far this season, he has had double figures on the glass. This season, he has not had a ton of success from behind the arc, but at Samford, he was as 44% shooter, so leaving him open is not a wise choice.

Achor Achor is everywhere on the glass so Alabama will need to keep a body on him. https://x.com/HailStateMBK/status/2010171036726444038?s=20

One of their best defenders is 6-6 Shawn Jones, who leads the team in steals. He has been at Mississippi State for the last 4 seasons so he is a guy Alabama should know very well. He has 6 steals so far in league play and has done a great job affecting the ball with just 3 games this season without a steal.

Their backup center is freshman 6-10 Jamarion Davis-Fleming. He has been getting a good amount of playing time as the backup center, but is more of a rebounding and defensive big man, especially as a freshman. He has had issues with foul trouble at times this season, so I expect Alabama to try to attack when he gets in.

The last bit of their rotation, which you may see, is Arizona State transfer 6-8 Amier Ali, Montana State transfer 6-8 Brandon Walker, and 6-9 from Slovenia Sergej Macura. Macura is the best of this group, but has missed games due to injury, so his impact has been minimal.

Mississippi State is a better defensive team than an offensive and their offense truly centers around Hubbard and Epps taking and making difficult shots. Their defense has been sound this season at forcing teams to take bad shots, but is not as good at forcing steals and turnovers as some of Jans previous teams.

Mississippi State struggles in a few major areas on offense, especially in getting to the free throw line, 3pt percentage, and getting shots blocked. These things are things that I think should play very well into how Alabama has played defense this season. Additionally, outside of Achor Achor they have not been great on the glass, so expect Alabama to bring the fight to them on the boards.

My players to watch are Aiden Sherrell and Labaron Philon. I know these are 2 of the most important players every night, but in this game, they will be tested. Aiden has done a great job blocking shots this season, and State struggles with that, so expect a big game on defense from him. Labaron has had some defensive struggles at times, but this game gives him a chance to face off against one of the premier guards in the country, and I expect him to bring it.

Alabama is reeling after a 2 game losing streak in conference play and needs a win on the road to get back on track. Mississippi State has a couple of solid wins in conference and will look to bounce back from its loss to Kentucky. I think that Alabama just has more ways to score and beat you, whereas State relys heavily on Epps and Hubbard. I expect them to get some of theirs, but Alabama to put it together and roll in this game.

Prediction: Alabama 92 - Mississippi State 75

I gave even more thoughts on this game over on the podcast. Check it out and subscribe for more Alabama Basketball Content! https://youtu.be/pN_OiUMNE5M